As an academic committee of the “2011 China Textile Academic Conferenceâ€, Yao Mu, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and a famous textile material expert, pointed out in an interview with the author of this paper that the textile industry is an industry with “strategic emerging contentâ€, the first half of the 21st century. Will also stride forward. At the same time, the pattern of the world textile industry is still undergoing profound changes. The processing of many high-end products and industrial textiles is being transferred from China's economically developed traditional textile powers to China. The processing of middle and low-end garments and home textiles has shifted from China to South and Southeast Asian countries. . The depletion of resources such as oil and natural gas that affect the development of the textile industry, as well as the significant increase in the cost of labor, will pose obstacles for the advancement of China's textile industry.
There are three major changes in the world textile industry. The author: What do you think is the biggest change facing the world and the Chinese textile industry? What opportunities and challenges will China welcome in this change?
Yao Mu: In the future, at least three major changes will have a major impact on the development of the textile industry.
First, global textile raw materials will be in short supply. This has caused great concern inside and outside the industry.
From the perspective of natural fiber raw materials, land resources have become the most important factor restricting their production. In the coming decades, the global population will also surge. According to the projections issued by the United Nations in 2000, the global population will reach 7.6 billion by 2050; in January 2009, the United Nations will increase the global population forecast for 2050 to 9.2 billion, and in April 2010 it will be revised to 9.3 billion, and this year it will increase again in February. To 9.4 billion. The immediate consequence of the population surge is that the food issue has become the world’s first contradiction. In 2009, China had already changed from a net food exporter to a net food importer. The "red line" of 1.8 billion mu of cultivated land has become the lifeline of China's food security. Under such severe farmland policies, it is difficult to guarantee the cultivation area of ​​traditional natural fibers, which will directly affect its production and supply.
More than 85% of the other important chemical fiber types of textile raw materials are petroleum-based products, which are also affected by the depletion of oil and natural gas. On November 8, 2010, economists at the University of California, Davis, published research papers stating that the global oil and gas resources will be depleted by 2050. This is not alarmist. In addition, renewable chemical fibers relying on cotton linters, wood pulp, etc. have reached their limits, and fast-growing wood supplies are also difficult to grow. Therefore, the future development of textile fiber raw materials must find new outlets.
Second, the structural change in the application of textile products is accelerating. The shift from apparel to home textiles, especially in the industrial sector, is very clear. It can be said that the huge growth potential of the textile industry in the coming decades will come mainly from the expansion of the industrial sector.
Recall that in 1977, more than 6,000 experts from the UN organization worldwide conducted research on the world development plan for the first half of the 21st century. Experts suggest that as the main raw material for clothing and home textiles, the development space for textile fibers has become saturated. At that time, the global per capita fiber consumption had reached 6 kilograms, and the clothing consumption exceeded 3.6 kilograms. The development space of the textile industry has narrowed. Therefore, from 1977 to 1980, the United States, the European Union and other countries and regions positioned the textile industry as a “sunset industry†and transferred production capacity to third world countries. However, in fact, from the 1980s to the 1990s, the textile industry has not only declined, but also ushered in another development climax: the global fiber processing volume has increased from more than 30 million tons to more than 40 million tons, an increase of 37% The reason is that the large-scale application of industrial textiles has opened up a huge new market.
According to the UN’s forecast, by 2050, the total volume of global textile fiber processing will reach 253 million tons, which is nearly three times that of the current more than 70 million tons. Among them, the processing volume of industrial textiles will reach 170 million tons, and the per capita fiber consumption will be 18.53 kg/person-year, accounting for 67.4% of the total fiber processing. For textile giants like China, the deep meaning of developing industrial textiles is self-evident.
Third, the labor cost of China's textile industry has risen significantly, which is already at the same level as the textile giants of the United States and Great Britain in the 1970s. Since 2003, the labor cost of China's textile industry has gradually increased. According to the findings of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, the cost of labor in China is 2 to 4 times higher than the cost of Southeast Asia and other countries. Take India as an example. In 2009, the processing labor costs of textile labor in more than 30 Indian states were 38% of the average level in China and 25% of the coastal areas. The low-cost advantages of China's textile industry have been severely impacted. According to the national plan, the minimum wage level during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period must be doubled, which shows that the labor costs in the textile industry will also increase substantially.
The quantity and quality are equally important. The author: The problem of shortage of raw materials has caused a lot of attention in the industry, and it is also involved in the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€. What do you think need attention?
Yao Mu: In terms of natural fibers, we must grasp the fundamental principle of not competing with the grain and minimize the use of arable land. We can use saline-alkali land, floodplain land, and hillside land. The chemical fiber industry will make use of vast natural resources such as oceans, forests, and agricultural and sideline waste products, vigorously develop renewable, recyclable, biodegradable, environmentally friendly biomass resources, and increase the recycling of waste textiles.
In addition, the development of products with less use of raw materials, high added value, and significant brand effect is the direction of future industry development. Take Luthai in Shandong as an example. The company grows its own cotton to produce 300 (508 public) cotton yarns, which are then exported to shirts and are sold at very high prices. However, the use of only 3,000 tons of cotton in shirts of this type not only creates high profits, but also reduces resource consumption, and can be adapted to the soaring labor costs.
Under the constraints of various factors, taking into account the status quo and trends in the development of the textile industry, in the field of clothing and households, we must gradually abandon the production of low-grade products, transfer to countries and regions such as Southeast Asia, and turn to research and development of high-end products; in the field of industrial use , we must do our utmost to squeeze into the ranks of the world's major producers of production and consumption.
I: You mentioned that the decline in the quality of textile raw materials, especially natural fibers, is a matter of high concern.
Yao Mu: Indeed. In the past, the contradiction between the quantity and quality of raw materials was not prominent because the prerequisite was low-end textiles. In the future, we will use less raw materials to produce higher value-added products. This contradiction will become increasingly prominent. Therefore, we must strive to improve the quality of textile raw materials, not just production.
Industrial textiles should be willing to play a supporting role The author: Industrial textiles are the new growth pole of the industry. This has become the consensus of the industry. However, how can industrial textiles be developed more smoothly because of the interdisciplinary and multi-field integration of industrial textiles?
Yao Mu: Industrial textiles require the compounding of various raw materials and various technologies. Their application fields and use environments are very different. Therefore, the development of the final products must be combined with “political, production, learning, research, and useâ€, and must be targeted at various types of products. Need to develop new fiber varieties, new textile processing technology, equipment, develop a series of detection technologies and instruments, and establish a series of new standards.
Under the guidance of the government, the textile industry must be willing to act as a supporting role, bringing the relevant agencies and units of end users to the leading position, jointly developing and serving downstream processes to form a complete industrial chain and a final product market. For example, in order to solve the problem of expansion of West-East Power Transmission, in order not to occupy new land resources, we mainly use the power sector, apply new textile technologies, use carbon fiber in the middle layer of transmission cables, use basalt fiber as the insulation layer, and the outer layer will The copper conductors were changed to aluminum conductors, which eventually increased the transmission capacity of the conductive cable from 1000 amps to 2000 amps and the diameter from 48 mm to 28 mm. Electromagnetic radiation also decreased significantly.
The broad prospects for the development of industrial textiles are beyond any doubt. The United Nations has issued a forecast that the world's iron and steel materials processing volume will be reduced to 50% of that of 1980 by 2050, and the reduction in quantity will be mainly replaced by fiber-reinforced composite materials. With the recovery of the cost of research and development of high-performance materials, combined with the advancement of equipment technology, the overall cost will further decline, and the product performance will continue to increase, and its application will become wider and wider.
The recycling of used resources must be long-term propaganda. The author has made gratifying achievements in the recycling of textile and recycling resources. However, there is still a large gap between the quality of products, especially consumption concepts, and the developed countries. How should this be improved?
Yao Mu: Through more than 10 years of social publicity and education, developed countries have made people aware of the importance of recycling. People are willing to spend more than the prices of their original products to buy recycled products that are lower than the quality of their original products in order to protect the global environment. This is proud. This is not an epoch, and the domestic gap is still very clear. It requires long-term propaganda and education.
I: What are your expectations for the academic year that will be held for the first time this year?
Yao Mu: All the problems and confusions in the development of the industries mentioned above can be discussed at this academic annual meeting. It is worth mentioning that this year's annual meeting will set up the textile academic award, and at the same time commend a group of textile leaders, especially young and middle-aged science and technology workers, to guide the industry to pay attention to basic theoretical research. With the transfer of the world's textile industry to China in large numbers, other countries have lost the momentum and capability of basic theoretical research. Many textile powerhouses in the past have already shut down textile-related majors in institutions of higher learning. In the past, there were more than 490 high-level magazines for the world textile industry. Sharply reduced to 16 species. As a textile giant, China should take its due responsibility.
There are three major changes in the world textile industry. The author: What do you think is the biggest change facing the world and the Chinese textile industry? What opportunities and challenges will China welcome in this change?
Yao Mu: In the future, at least three major changes will have a major impact on the development of the textile industry.
First, global textile raw materials will be in short supply. This has caused great concern inside and outside the industry.
From the perspective of natural fiber raw materials, land resources have become the most important factor restricting their production. In the coming decades, the global population will also surge. According to the projections issued by the United Nations in 2000, the global population will reach 7.6 billion by 2050; in January 2009, the United Nations will increase the global population forecast for 2050 to 9.2 billion, and in April 2010 it will be revised to 9.3 billion, and this year it will increase again in February. To 9.4 billion. The immediate consequence of the population surge is that the food issue has become the world’s first contradiction. In 2009, China had already changed from a net food exporter to a net food importer. The "red line" of 1.8 billion mu of cultivated land has become the lifeline of China's food security. Under such severe farmland policies, it is difficult to guarantee the cultivation area of ​​traditional natural fibers, which will directly affect its production and supply.
More than 85% of the other important chemical fiber types of textile raw materials are petroleum-based products, which are also affected by the depletion of oil and natural gas. On November 8, 2010, economists at the University of California, Davis, published research papers stating that the global oil and gas resources will be depleted by 2050. This is not alarmist. In addition, renewable chemical fibers relying on cotton linters, wood pulp, etc. have reached their limits, and fast-growing wood supplies are also difficult to grow. Therefore, the future development of textile fiber raw materials must find new outlets.
Second, the structural change in the application of textile products is accelerating. The shift from apparel to home textiles, especially in the industrial sector, is very clear. It can be said that the huge growth potential of the textile industry in the coming decades will come mainly from the expansion of the industrial sector.
Recall that in 1977, more than 6,000 experts from the UN organization worldwide conducted research on the world development plan for the first half of the 21st century. Experts suggest that as the main raw material for clothing and home textiles, the development space for textile fibers has become saturated. At that time, the global per capita fiber consumption had reached 6 kilograms, and the clothing consumption exceeded 3.6 kilograms. The development space of the textile industry has narrowed. Therefore, from 1977 to 1980, the United States, the European Union and other countries and regions positioned the textile industry as a “sunset industry†and transferred production capacity to third world countries. However, in fact, from the 1980s to the 1990s, the textile industry has not only declined, but also ushered in another development climax: the global fiber processing volume has increased from more than 30 million tons to more than 40 million tons, an increase of 37% The reason is that the large-scale application of industrial textiles has opened up a huge new market.
According to the UN’s forecast, by 2050, the total volume of global textile fiber processing will reach 253 million tons, which is nearly three times that of the current more than 70 million tons. Among them, the processing volume of industrial textiles will reach 170 million tons, and the per capita fiber consumption will be 18.53 kg/person-year, accounting for 67.4% of the total fiber processing. For textile giants like China, the deep meaning of developing industrial textiles is self-evident.
Third, the labor cost of China's textile industry has risen significantly, which is already at the same level as the textile giants of the United States and Great Britain in the 1970s. Since 2003, the labor cost of China's textile industry has gradually increased. According to the findings of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, the cost of labor in China is 2 to 4 times higher than the cost of Southeast Asia and other countries. Take India as an example. In 2009, the processing labor costs of textile labor in more than 30 Indian states were 38% of the average level in China and 25% of the coastal areas. The low-cost advantages of China's textile industry have been severely impacted. According to the national plan, the minimum wage level during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period must be doubled, which shows that the labor costs in the textile industry will also increase substantially.
The quantity and quality are equally important. The author: The problem of shortage of raw materials has caused a lot of attention in the industry, and it is also involved in the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€. What do you think need attention?
Yao Mu: In terms of natural fibers, we must grasp the fundamental principle of not competing with the grain and minimize the use of arable land. We can use saline-alkali land, floodplain land, and hillside land. The chemical fiber industry will make use of vast natural resources such as oceans, forests, and agricultural and sideline waste products, vigorously develop renewable, recyclable, biodegradable, environmentally friendly biomass resources, and increase the recycling of waste textiles.
In addition, the development of products with less use of raw materials, high added value, and significant brand effect is the direction of future industry development. Take Luthai in Shandong as an example. The company grows its own cotton to produce 300 (508 public) cotton yarns, which are then exported to shirts and are sold at very high prices. However, the use of only 3,000 tons of cotton in shirts of this type not only creates high profits, but also reduces resource consumption, and can be adapted to the soaring labor costs.
Under the constraints of various factors, taking into account the status quo and trends in the development of the textile industry, in the field of clothing and households, we must gradually abandon the production of low-grade products, transfer to countries and regions such as Southeast Asia, and turn to research and development of high-end products; in the field of industrial use , we must do our utmost to squeeze into the ranks of the world's major producers of production and consumption.
I: You mentioned that the decline in the quality of textile raw materials, especially natural fibers, is a matter of high concern.
Yao Mu: Indeed. In the past, the contradiction between the quantity and quality of raw materials was not prominent because the prerequisite was low-end textiles. In the future, we will use less raw materials to produce higher value-added products. This contradiction will become increasingly prominent. Therefore, we must strive to improve the quality of textile raw materials, not just production.
Industrial textiles should be willing to play a supporting role The author: Industrial textiles are the new growth pole of the industry. This has become the consensus of the industry. However, how can industrial textiles be developed more smoothly because of the interdisciplinary and multi-field integration of industrial textiles?
Yao Mu: Industrial textiles require the compounding of various raw materials and various technologies. Their application fields and use environments are very different. Therefore, the development of the final products must be combined with “political, production, learning, research, and useâ€, and must be targeted at various types of products. Need to develop new fiber varieties, new textile processing technology, equipment, develop a series of detection technologies and instruments, and establish a series of new standards.
Under the guidance of the government, the textile industry must be willing to act as a supporting role, bringing the relevant agencies and units of end users to the leading position, jointly developing and serving downstream processes to form a complete industrial chain and a final product market. For example, in order to solve the problem of expansion of West-East Power Transmission, in order not to occupy new land resources, we mainly use the power sector, apply new textile technologies, use carbon fiber in the middle layer of transmission cables, use basalt fiber as the insulation layer, and the outer layer will The copper conductors were changed to aluminum conductors, which eventually increased the transmission capacity of the conductive cable from 1000 amps to 2000 amps and the diameter from 48 mm to 28 mm. Electromagnetic radiation also decreased significantly.
The broad prospects for the development of industrial textiles are beyond any doubt. The United Nations has issued a forecast that the world's iron and steel materials processing volume will be reduced to 50% of that of 1980 by 2050, and the reduction in quantity will be mainly replaced by fiber-reinforced composite materials. With the recovery of the cost of research and development of high-performance materials, combined with the advancement of equipment technology, the overall cost will further decline, and the product performance will continue to increase, and its application will become wider and wider.
The recycling of used resources must be long-term propaganda. The author has made gratifying achievements in the recycling of textile and recycling resources. However, there is still a large gap between the quality of products, especially consumption concepts, and the developed countries. How should this be improved?
Yao Mu: Through more than 10 years of social publicity and education, developed countries have made people aware of the importance of recycling. People are willing to spend more than the prices of their original products to buy recycled products that are lower than the quality of their original products in order to protect the global environment. This is proud. This is not an epoch, and the domestic gap is still very clear. It requires long-term propaganda and education.
I: What are your expectations for the academic year that will be held for the first time this year?
Yao Mu: All the problems and confusions in the development of the industries mentioned above can be discussed at this academic annual meeting. It is worth mentioning that this year's annual meeting will set up the textile academic award, and at the same time commend a group of textile leaders, especially young and middle-aged science and technology workers, to guide the industry to pay attention to basic theoretical research. With the transfer of the world's textile industry to China in large numbers, other countries have lost the momentum and capability of basic theoretical research. Many textile powerhouses in the past have already shut down textile-related majors in institutions of higher learning. In the past, there were more than 490 high-level magazines for the world textile industry. Sharply reduced to 16 species. As a textile giant, China should take its due responsibility.
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