2012 textile and clothing will be how?

In the first year of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” in 2011, the economic operation of the textile industry experienced many challenges. Due to the multiple contradictions and constraints such as the sluggish international demand, the fluctuation of domestic raw material prices, the tightening of monetary policy, the appreciation of ***, and the rising cost of factors and labor, the current growth situation is relatively difficult. What will happen in 2012? What will happen to the environment at home and abroad? How to judge the situation of export and domestic sales? How do raw material market conditions change? What are the trends in textile investment? What new growth point in the textile industry? Constantly promote the industrial structure adjustment and industrial upgrading focus on how to choose? How to deal with textile enterprises? and many more. With so many issues to be explored, the China Textile Roundtable Forum for the new year has opened up a challenging space for thinking.

The changing environment for the economic situation 2011 is the first year of the “12th Five-Year Plan”. From an overall point of view, structural adjustments and industrial upgrading of the textile industry continue to advance. With the use of alternatives, the growth of all-round indicators is almost normal and the trend of operation is running. Overall stable. However, the industry's operation is facing a marked increase in domestic risks over the previous year, raw material prices have risen and waned, environmental tightening, domestic factors and labor costs have increased, and external demand growth has slackened. These factors have increased operating pressure.

● Overall profit growth rate fell faster According to the National Bureau of Statistics, 16,000 textile enterprises above designated size achieved a total industrial output value of 4952.6 billion yuan from January to November 2011, a year-on-year increase of 27.5%, and chemical fiber output 3074 Ten thousand tons, an increase of 14.9%, yarn production 26.32 million tons, an increase of 12.5%, fabric output 56.8 billion meters, an increase of 13.3, 22.9 billion garments, an increase of 8.5%, the industry's production is basically normal, but subject to raw material prices fluctuate significantly, with Electricity shortages, rising wage costs, and lack of external demand have contributed to the continuous decline in production growth, and the deceleration in the production of midstream and downstream products has become more pronounced. Compared with the number in the first quarter, from January to November, the output growth rate of enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.1 percentage points, the growth rate of chemical fiber production decreased by 3.1 percentage points, the growth rate of yarn production decreased by 0.1 percentage points, the production of cloth decreased by 6.2 percentage points, and the clothing output decreased. 6.1 percentage points. According to the China Textile Industry Federation's survey of 82 key textile industry clusters in the country, the output value of companies below the scale of the clustered region in January-October increased by 0.3%, a 9.1 percentage point drop from the first quarter.

According to customs data, from January to November 2011, the country’s textile apparel exports totaled 231.8 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, and the growth rate was 6 percentage points lower than at the end of April. The main factor in the growth of the industry’s export value was the increase in product prices. According to calculations, due to factors such as the optimization of product export structure and rising production costs, textile prices increased by 20.4% in January-November 2011, and the total export growth reached 98%. Excluding price factors, the number of textile and apparel exports from January to November increased by 0.5% year-on-year, including a 0.1% increase in the number of apparel exports. Some export orders were transferred to peripheral low-cost countries. The international market is not optimistic about the end-user demand.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the retail sales of goods at and above the county level increased by 23.9% from January to November, and the domestic output value of textile enterprises above the designated size reached 4.01 trillion yuan, an increase of 30.3% year-on-year, 14.5 percentage points higher than that of the same period. Domestic sales accounted for 82.9% of the total output value, up 1.8 percentage points over the same period of the previous year, but due to price increase factors, domestic demand growth in 2011, the actual growth rate in January-November decreased 4.4 percentage points over the same period last year, compared to 2011 In the first quarter of the year, it decreased by 0.4 percentage points, and the growth rate of domestic output value of enterprises above designated size decreased by 3.3 percentage points from the first quarter.

From January to November 2011, the fixed investment of the textile industry with a total output of 5 million yuan or more was 610.1 billion yuan, an increase of 34.7% year-on-year. The growth rate was 1.3 percentage points lower than that in the first three months of the year, and the number of newly started projects was increased by 1.8%. New projects started to slow down. Corporate enthusiasm and lack of funds also reflect the decline in corporate market confidence and investment willingness. With regard to the distribution of new investment areas, the investment in the central and western regions achieved rapid growth, and the proportion increased further. From January to November, the fixed asset investment of the central and western regions increased by 55.7% and 51.8%, respectively, which was significantly higher than the 23% growth rate in the eastern region. . The proportion of newly added investment in the central and western regions accounted for 30.6% and 8.1% of the national total respectively, an increase of 4.1 and 0.9 percentage points from the same period of last year, and the pace of transfer of the textile industry to the central and western regions continued to accelerate. The investment growth of the display industry has slowed down and the regional layout has continued to be optimized.

Despite many pressures on textile and apparel operations in 2011, structural adjustments and industrial upgrades continued to advance. The quality of operations improved steadily and increased 21.1% year-on-year. The industry's production efficiency steadily increased. The ratio of three expenses was 5.6%, which was a decrease of 0.2% over the same period of last year. Percentage. Among them, the monetary tightening caused a substantial increase in corporate interest expenses, but the three proportions of financial expenses were basically the same as the previous year, indicating that the management level continued to improve, and the quality of corporate asset management and utilization efficiency were basically good.

The overall profitability of the industry, but the growth rate of profits fell faster. The improvement of operating quality and the expansion of domestic demand have brought profit to the textile industry and achieved sustained profitability. From January to November 2011, textile enterprises above designated size achieved a total of 215.5 billion yuan, an increase of 29% over the same period of last year, and a sales margin of 5%, which was the same as the same period of the previous year. However, as raw material prices fluctuated significantly and production and agricultural capital costs increased, industry profit growth continued to shrink. In January-November, the growth rate was down by 24.6 percentage points from the first quarter. In October, the profit contraction was only 71.8%, down 40 from the beginning of the year. percentage point. According to China Textile Industry Federation's key industrial cluster survey data from January to November, small-scale enterprise profits increased by 11.4%, and the growth rate was lower than the net value of above-scale enterprises by 40%. The efficiency of export-oriented processing enterprises declined even more prominently, and the proportion of 9 exports was greater than In 20% of garment industry clusters, the total profit of enterprises above designated size increased by only 4.7% year-on-year.

● Complex external economic environment Wang Tiankai, president of the China National Textile and Apparel Council, pointed out that the environment faced by the textile industry in 2012 is still very complicated. From the perspective of the general environment, the development of the industry will become tighter. In particular, the situation in the first half of the year may be severe. On the one hand, the European debt crisis continues, and the weak recovery of the world economy will have a significant negative impact on consumption. In particular, as the main consumers in the international market, the developed countries such as the United States and Europe have experienced weak economic recovery and the unemployment rate remains high. It is expected that the demand in the international market will remain weak. Export companies face insufficient demand, and competition pressures and trade frictions will become more prominent. On the other hand, it is difficult to increase the growth of household consumption and the demand for international investment has slowed down. It is expected that the downward pressure on China's economic growth will further increase in 2012. As raw material prices fluctuate and prices of labor and other factors rise, SMEs' environment has not yet reached substantial improvement. Textiles may face greater difficulties as a competitive industry.

He said: "Although, textiles and clothing as the basic attributes of daily necessities, it also determines that domestic and foreign market demand does not appear a substantial contraction, in particular, China's domestic market fundamentals have not fundamentally changed, the income growth of urban and rural residents will still Maintaining a rate not lower than that of economic growth, various policies and measures to improve people's livelihood and expanding domestic demand will continue to be implemented, and as inflation pressures gradually ease, domestic demand for textiles and clothing will continue to expand steadily and continue to be the primary support for the development of the textile industry. At the same time, we should also see that although the competition in the international market is even fiercer, China’s textile industry has a mature and complete industrial system that has formed an integrated competitive advantage, and still has a clear international competitive advantage in terms of quality and market share.”

Wang Tiankai believes that tightening the external environment has formed a market forcing mechanism and brought a new round of reshuffling to promote industry upgrading and adjustment. Therefore, it is expected that the benefits of China's textile industry will continue to increase in 2012. The main operating indicators of enterprises above designated size are expected to maintain double-digit growth, but the growth rate will slow down from the previous year. Due to the economic downturn, the end market may have less space for increasing consumer prices, and it is expected that the rate of decline in industry exports and profit growth will be more apparent. The difficulties faced by small and medium-sized enterprises, especially processing-oriented SMEs, will be met. It will be more prominent. Based on the above overall assessment of the economic situation of the textile industry, in 2012, the entire industry should conscientiously implement the central economic work conference, striving for progress in the spirit of the overall tone, to expand domestic demand as the strategic basis, in accordance with the central authorities to speed up economic restructuring, Strengthen the work requirements of self-coordinated development, take full objective and clear understanding of the grim situation facing the new year, and all kinds of difficult problems, and on the basis of further enhancing confidence in the development of the industry, take targeted measures. Positive response.

Pang Jiancheng, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics China Economic Prosperity Monitoring Center, gave us an analysis of the current state of affairs at the macro level. Pan Jiancheng pointed out: "The results of the business climate survey in the fourth quarter just announced, we can see both the business climate index and the entrepreneur confidence index fall. How do you understand how to both fall? I think so: First, the index is falling. However, many people often pay attention to the relative number of economic growth, but do not pay attention to the absolute number.Secondly, the confidence of entrepreneurs is green, reflecting the current decline in the confidence of entrepreneurs in society is more severe.When the entire economy encountered some difficulties At that time, the decline in confidence often has a magnifying effect.Worried about what the economic growth is for, it is very important for employment. But today there is not a lot of unemployment, and migrant workers return home. The potential growth rate of the economy means that the full employment The situation is growing. Now the fall in economic growth is just a return to the potential growth rate. It is a rational return and is the result of macroeconomic regulation and control."

Pan Jiancheng also spoke of the extremely booming IT industry, which has a booming rate of 65% for three consecutive quarters. Explained the state's subjective policy to promote strategic emerging industries, and promote the role of a new generation of information technology. The second explanation Objectively, when domestic companies are in difficulty, they also take the initiative to innovate, break through, upgrade their structures, and upgrade the structure. It is very important how to improve the management level, technology level, information, and IT industry through informationization. Great demand.

He also mentioned that the boom in the wholesale and retail trade, social services, accommodation and catering industries is relatively stable and relatively high, which is significantly higher than that of industry. It shows that these industries are closely related to consumption, consumption is growing steadily, and even a breakthrough is being brewed. This is also the reason why the textile and apparel industry still maintains a relatively good momentum in the face of declining external demand. Consumption is a function of income, and income reaching a certain level will inevitably increase the driving force for consumption.

Pan Jiancheng said when he said the export: "The textile industry is very dependent on exports. This dependence has to analyze the international situation. The focus is still on the United States and Europe. The different situations in the United States and Europe today are not exactly the same. The U.S. economy has recently been moderate. In the recovery, we can see that recent consumer confidence is on the rise, and the unemployment rate is declining. Of course, I cannot say that it is sustainable, but at least it shows that the U.S. economy has not gone further. This gives us a comparative comparison of exports in 2012. Good conditions, but the problem lies in the European debt crisis in Europe, as well as a series of tightening policies that need to be taken after the European debt crisis will have an impact. Then, the European debt crisis can not be resolved in the short term. This is a problem."

Zhang Yansheng, former director of the Institute of Foreign Economic Research at the National Development and Reform Commission, said when he talked about the impact of the European debt crisis on textiles and clothing: “The economy has an intrinsic rate, and global investors’ confidence can be quickly reached if there is an internal political contest. , and then to make Europe's current difficulties bottom out, so that European debt bonds will not be out of control. Because the European economy is, after all, the world's richest economy, Europeans are fully capable of saving themselves. If Europeans are politically, 27 countries can If we achieve consensus, plus international aid, together with the same boat, the crisis will not actually worsen as people think, but if we fail to do this, it will be a disaster to the world and to Europe.

For textile and apparel companies, Zhang Yansheng believes that due to the European debt crisis, there is currently a problem with global investor confidence, so the euro is depreciating.

Wang Wei, deputy director of the Research Institute of Market Economy at the State Council Development Research Center, believes: “After 30 years of rapid growth, our current economic decline has caused adjustments in our economic cycle, as well as external environmental impacts, and more importantly after 30 years of rapid growth. China’s economy will not develop in the past with high-speed growth.In fact, from the development experiences of all countries in the world, it is possible to see such a clear fact that according to the 1990 international dollar caliber, the per capita GDP reached 8,000,1 In the US$ million phase, the speed of economic growth in all countries will change due to the changes in Japan, South Korea, Germany, and the United States, with high-speed growth going into relatively high-speed growth and medium-rate growth. In a transitional phase, the current economic operation callbacks and speed changes may also just indicate that we are also in such a stage. More importantly, we can use our potential growth rate to play a better role in future growth. At the same time, it made our market economy system more perfect."

Since the company's own salvation is not enough for the environment, 2012 is bound to be a complicated year. Therefore, companies can only make strenuous efforts to achieve self-redemption without fear of the storm and rely on their own efforts.

● Dangerous Machine Dialectics “In the past, the global political and economic situation in 2011 was complicated and severe. Systemic risks and market risks were significantly greater than in 2010. Under the influence of multiple factors in the market, the domestic textile industry ushered in the most since 2008. Difficult year.” The words of Zhao Boya, chairman and party committee member of China National Textiles Corporation, on the China Textile roundtable forum recently summarized the overall situation of China's textile and apparel industry in 2011.

Taking cotton spinning companies as an example, in 2011, due to the decline in the base number of cotton quotas and the unfavorable factors such as shrinking orders in foreign markets, cotton textile companies struggled, slow-moving products, large inventories of finished products, and tightening monetary policy made the company ** Difficulties have increased, resulting in cash flow for many cotton textile companies. Production and business operations have been extremely difficult. They can only reduce production or stop production to ease the pressure.

But this may not be the worst. In 2012, the international and domestic situation we face has become more complicated. According to the latest forecast by the United Nations, the global economic growth this year will fall by 2.6%, which is far below its previous forecast of 4.6%. China's textile and garment industry can't be alone in this environment. In 2012, the environment faced by the textile industry is still very complicated. From the perspective of the big environment, the industry development situation will become tighter, and the situation in the first half of the year may be relatively severe. In addition, it is expected that the downward pressure on China's economic growth will further increase in 2012. As raw material prices fluctuate and prices of labor and other factors rise, SMEs' environment has not yet reached substantial improvement. Textiles may face greater difficulties as a competitive industry.

However, between the stages of the market trend, there are still some technologies that need us to be sensitive and dynamic to capture and control. Because "danger" and "machine" have always been inseparable and can be transformed under certain conditions, this is the reason that philosophical dialectics tells us.

Let us look at the European debt crisis. Now the problem is more prominent than the United States but the European Union. Because the European debt crisis continues to spread, the countries that used to be cornered in the past are now experiencing a proliferation of debt crisis in some major European countries. Now we are concerned that the EU is a major market for the Chinese textile and garment industry. Under the situation of the continuous spread of the European debt crisis, what kind of situation will we have this year for European exports? This is a lot of people in the industry. Concerned.

Regarding this issue, Zhang Yansheng, former director of the Institute of Foreign Economic Research of the National Development and Reform Commission, also believes that in 2012 Europe and the United States economy will indeed still be bad. He analyzed that one is the lack of demand, the other is the lack of confidence, and the third is the lack of solutions. "Some economists in the United States, including some important officials, have expressed a concern that the economy of Europe and the United States will not fall into the Japanese style, a relatively long economic stagnation; the other side is very worried about China and emerging markets will It will not slow down; that is to say, where is the driving force and engine of world economic growth this year? This is currently more worrying. In particular, the impact of the European debt crisis on textile and garment companies is that global investor confidence is still problematic, so the euro is Devaluation."

However, there are still opportunities for the seemingly desperate appearance. "Europe's major economies like those of Germany's economies should be said that the current economic situation is relatively stable. Therefore, in this situation, our textile and apparel industry as a domestic competitive industry, even if it is a difficult situation in 2012, there are still in Europe. Opportunity, especially for outstanding companies, there are still relatively large business opportunities this year." Zhang Yansheng said with certainty.

The analysis of Pan Jiancheng, deputy director of China's economic climate monitoring center of the National Bureau of Statistics, showed even more optimism. In his view, the confidence of entrepreneurs in the current society has declined more severely. Back to 3 years ago, we will find that when the entire economy encounters some difficulties, the decline in confidence often has an amplified effect. In other words, the company itself is not so bad, but because everyone's concerns are more, so the confidence decline is very powerful.

So he said: “At this time, we need to look at the problem historically. Now the relative number is going down, but the absolute amount is going up. Compared to 10 years ago, the base number has been very different, when China's per capita GDP is close to At 5,000 U.S. dollars, the economic growth rate reached 9%. This growth rate is actually not low, but high."

● Creating the company's own excitement “No historical disaster was not compensated by historical progress.” This is a famous quote by Engels and was quoted by Xu Jianmin, general manager of Sanyang Textile Co., Ltd., to explain the role as a business operator. The openness and confidence of the self in a harsh external environment.

Not only that, he also suggested that other companies should be able to grasp these points when the market conditions in 2012 are not clear. The first is to stick to the company’s own positioning. “Whether it is high-end positioning, mid-position positioning, or low-end positioning, we must adhere to it and do not change it casually.” Because “the current environment is too complex, many macroeconomic policies have not yet landed. If we change our strategy under bright conditions, it may be premature.” So, according to Xu Jianmin, adherence to policies will enable companies to walk on small roads, and will also enter a kind of avenue. If they change their strategies at this time, they may go down the road. It will go to a dead end, so sticking to the strategy is very important. The second point is to maintain a good value for customers, because “the market is the basis for the survival of a company, and the customer is the basis for the survival of the company”. However, the customers are of different sizes and quality, so we must maintain a good quality of customers. . He also humorously ridicules with the name of a song, which is called "Special Love Dedicated to You." "We should give special care to our larger customers, and we will be able to pass this time." The third is to manufacture. Excitedly, “If a business enterprise magnifies the difficulties, then the company has no way to live, so it is necessary for them to find fun. It is to create excitement.” As for excitement, how can it be manufactured? Xu Jianmin's point of view is that macro things cannot be changed because, as an enterprise, if you say something outside the front door, you can only adapt. You have the final say in the front door, then change it and adapt it to the market. Specifically, the so-called excitement manufacturing is nothing more than starting with technological innovation and other aspects, and doing some strategic adjustments and operational mechanism adjustments. In fact, it is to practice internal strength.

When it comes to technological innovation, Oerlikon Textile Group, its president Mr. Babacan said that textile is a very basic material, but its use is very diverse and extensive. Therefore, new technologies and innovations can help companies reduce production costs and create new features and characteristics of textiles, as well as optimize business processes for companies. Under this concept, Oerlikon Textile Group makes every effort to adopt new innovations, new solutions, new materials to reduce costs, and to provide more textile fiber materials more efficiently, which undoubtedly makes Oerlikon Textile Group's market even more broad. It is understood that many smart textiles are now increasingly used in the apparel sector.

"Innovation can be considered as the holy grail of the textile industry. Through innovation, we can build a broader market and expand the broader world within the global scope." Babacan's sentence should apply to all Chinese textile and garment companies.

Similarly, because of its own excitement, Xu Weimin, chairman of Jiangsu Dongdu Textile Group, who has survived all sorts of “swift current rapids”, said that the company’s total sales at home and abroad have exceeded RMB 5 billion, and the total volume has improved compared to the same period last year. A substantial increase. "Last year due to the influence of uncertainties in various aspects, I was worried about the development of the entire enterprise for a time. Especially when the policy was not stable enough, I was on a tightrope at that time. I don't know what will happen next, material prices. Rising, rising labor costs, coupled with policy uncertainties, companies do not know what to do next, very confused.” But this has passed, and in 2011 Jiangsu Dongdu Textile Group passed through with no danger. Because, "At different times, we have adopted various countermeasures."

In fact, many companies are already aware of the complicated situation in 2012 and are actively preparing for the response. Although many entrepreneurs also say that they are not very at the same time, they are worried about orders, and they worry about the pressure caused by rising raw material prices and rising labor costs. Too much to eat, especially for the majority of SMEs, may be even more sad. However, rather than worrying that it has not come yet, it is better to do it right now. “A good opportunity to seize him, a bad opportunity and adversity, and excavate some excitement from it.” This sentence should be shared by all people in the industry.

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