Jade this stone, in the "crazy" after a decade, finally encountered the first setback this year.
The Myanmar public trading in March may have been the coldest in years. The rapid flow of domestic speculators has caused the participants of Jade's public board to drastically reduce the number of gambling corps from 8,000 to 2,000. Judging from the jadeite auction situation that began last year, it seems that many dangerous signals have already been revealed. The number of jadeite shots has increased, and many high-end jadeite have quietly exited in the deserted â€œpriceless marketâ€.
The upsurge is quietly cooling, and many of the emerald speculators seem to have come to an end. There is an emerald business sigh: "There are tens of millions of goods on hand, you can't handle it!"
Is it a straight decline or a V-shaped trough, is it facing a crash or a few years of low tide? According to industry analysts, in the market's ups and downs, the collectors who have won this â€œlong winterâ€ will become the biggest winners.
March of the Myanmar public, one word: cold!
In March 2012, the Jade Crest was staged in Naypyidaw in the capital of Myanmar. There were only about 2,000 Chinese who participated in this public event. Compared with the gambling army of 8,000 people in June 2010, the figure was reduced by approximately 70%. One word: cold!
"We went to the public disk a few years ago. There are at least a dozen aircraft charter flights from Macau and Guangzhou. There are only about 56 or more charter flights this year." Tai Yuen-Foo, the general manager of Guo, said that not only chartered planes, but also accommodation. A lot of deserted, in the most popular when the public disk when some businesses can not book the hotel in advance booking, can only choose to rent. Although the hotel prices have not declined this year, the occupancy rate has dropped sharply.
This year's public bidding has also dropped significantly. "The transaction price has been reduced by about 30%. In June 2010, one of the speculators took a piece of 6 kilograms of rough stone at a price of more than 19 million euros. This year, let me give the same price, I certainly do not want to." Guo said.
From the public data of the Myanmar Jewelry Fair, it can also be seen that in the first quarter of this year, the volume of jadeite stones in Myanmar's main producing area fell by 70%.
The number of attendees in the auction dropped sharply, and the volume of jadeite declined
Not only did the number of people who went to the public trading market plummeted, but from the volume of auctions at the collectibles auction, the enthusiasm of the merchants for the jadeite auctions was also greatly reduced this year.
Two years ago in Christie's Spring Auction, the entire auction involved 288 pieces of jewellery, 256 pieces of transactions, the turnover rate was as high as 89%, the first lottery auction was won by an ice jade necklace, sold for 56.6 million Hong Kong dollars, Refreshed the auction record for the Christie Jade Necklace.
But this scene of a prosperous situation seems to be burying some dangerous signals.
In the Jiadechun auction in May 2011, compared with the antiques and paintings on the seats, there were more than half of empty seats in the jadeite auction buyer's seat. Few buyers placarded the price, and there were a total of 62 pieces of jade in the auction. Pieces flow, more than 70% of the jade has not been traded. Whether it is the transaction price or the auction rate is less than other jade.
This year's Christie's spring auction is clearly less optimistic, in which the price of jade in the high-end market is still strong, but judging from the flow of jadeite jade, it seems that there is only price and no market. The auction rate of jade auction items including jadeite is about 20%, and the transaction rate is down by 10%. Among them, one of the finest emerald strings estimated to be between 25 million and 30 million was eventually shot.
"Mad" for 10 years, 30% this year
Jade this stone, after ten years of madness, finally encountered the first setback. In mid-2011, the price of jadeite began to fall and it has dropped by about 30%.
"The 30% decline does not include high-grade jade with particularly good water quality. Because of its scarcity, high-grade jade is still rising in price, but the rate of price increase is slowing." Hangzhou Tower Shopping Mall Yu Fang said.
"In addition to occupying 5%-10% of the market's high-end emerald priced at more than 500,000 yuan, the mid-to-low-end jadeite accounted for about 90% of the market." Taiyuan Feng Guo said, and the business for the middle and low grade jadeite recent discounts and activities Both are more frequent than in previous years.
"Compared with the past, if you want to buy low-end jade, the price is really high." Shi Xiangyang, general manager of Jade Story also said.
In 2008, a guest bought a variety of jadeite products such as rings, pendants, beads, and bracelets at the Jadeite counter of the Hangzhou Tower. The total price was close to 4 million yuan. After the price of jadeite fell, jaded connoisseurs were mostly scouring some of the price points. In the 10 million yuan of personalized jade, such as, ink Tsui, Huang Hao and other cost-effective products.
Jade merchants: there are tens of millions of cargo on hand, you can't handle it!
When the emerald was the most â€œhot,â€ the speculators were crazy. â€œThey were not professional, but they were just plain woolen materials. They used a camera or a flashlight and they thought they had a 'head' and they were very proud of it. They were 500,000 yuan. The bid price is directly priced at 5 million yuan."
At the beginning of last year, the two coal bosses in Shanxi passed over 200 million yuan to purchase a batch of jadeite stone. It is said that the maximum market price of this batch of materials can reach 7.8 billion yuan.
But this hot situation began to take a sharp turn this year.
Jade market is cold, causing many speculators to withdraw from the market. "There are a lot of speculators who bought rough at a high price at the time, and now they are unable to withdraw funds because of a short period of time, resulting in financial difficulties or even losses." said Guo.
The owner of Chu, who opened an emerald jewellery shop near Hefang Street in Hangzhou, said that the family had been doing jade business for 20 years. The situation was good for the past few years. The quantity was about 1,000 pieces of jade jewelry, and the market price was at least 1000. Ten thousand yuan, but now they can't sell it.
"Because of the small amount of funds, the number of high-grade jadeite in my hands is not large, and we have concentrated on the middle and low-end jade. Originally, the economic situation was not good. If the price is too high, the price of jadeite will not be able to sell. No money to make.â€ Chu boss thinks, in his opinion, the Jade market has suddenly evolved, people who want to sell can not sell, people who want to buy can not buy, low-end businesses are very difficult to do.
Just in June of this year, a microblog user named â€œWenzhou PE Xiaogeâ€ also posted a message saying that his friend came to the debt and wanted to transfer 20 million yuan worth of RMB 30 million worth of jade stone to 15 million yuan.
As the saying goes, â€œgold is valuable and jade is priceless.â€ â€œThe investment of jadeite is not like gold. It does not have a mature secondary market. For jade stones that are much larger than the market, it is difficult to be accepted by the terminal, and it is even more difficult in the short term. It's very blind to take advantage of short-term speculation and fast forwards,â€ said Li Min, senior international jewellery designer.
The speculators have no money on their hands and calm down after the stir-fry.
Since 2000, Jadeite has experienced skyrocketing growth for nearly eleven years, far more than gold. Some industry analysts believe that from 2000 to 2004, the jade investment market is relatively cautious, with an annual increase of around 20%. Since 2004, Jadeite investment boom has slowly emerged, with an increase of more than 50%. From 2008 to July 2011, it became the main band for the price increase of jadeite, which rose by about 100%. Since then, there has been a turning point in the market and the average price has fallen by 30%.
For the reasons for the drop in Jadeite's price, Vice President Hu Chengmin of the Jade Culture Research Institute of Zhejiang Province analyzed that during the heyday of the Jade Marketâ€™s most prosperous period, a small part of the retreat from the stock market and property market was behind the backdrop of soaring prices, especially in Zhejiang. Some capital from Fujian and Northern China flocked to the Myanmar auction market to purchase a large amount of jadeite raw materials. However, after the country began to tighten its monetary stance, to some extent, there was no money for speculators, and naturally no one had the capital to stir fry. "After the speculation, the speculators who have had hot money and hot money on hand are no longer crazy investments in the past few years due to monetary tightening."
Industry analysis, Jade's "cold", in fact, is for the 2011 before the price of jade blowback pumping. â€œThe skyrocketing price of jadeite is a part of a large number of marketized bubbles, and a rational decline is a process of squeezing a bubble.â€ Hu Chengmin's analysis is influenced by the law of value and there must be a rational return after skyrocketing.
Those who can survive the "downturn" are the big winners.
With regard to the collapse of the jadeite market, most people in the industry, including businesses, have denied this.
â€œAs a scarce resource, jadeite is a normal thing to return to rationality after experiencing a lot of speculation,â€ said Bao Deqing, an associate professor at the China University of Geosciences (Wuhan) Institute of Jewellery. Hu Chengmin thinks, "There will be a two-to-three year downturn from this year. Emerald's flow cycle is lengthening. Among them, mid-range and low-end jade are more affected."
For powerful businesses, the situation is not as good as the decline in profits. At present, the jade market is stable, and virtual fire is eliminated. The early bubble period has basically consumed.
For the purchase and selection of jadeite jade, â€œThe biggest winner is not a merchant but a collector.â€ Insiders believe that it is the big winner who can survive the â€œdownturnâ€.
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