The domestic industrial goods market is undergoing profound changes. The hot selling situation is no longer, but instead it is "selling." From home appliances, textiles, and garments, it was learned that as demand fell, commodity prices fell, corporate inventories soared, and manufacturing companies suffered.
The executives of a domestic color TV company whose stocks of listed companies hit a record high said that TV sales in the Shanghai market during the "May 1st" holiday period did not exceed expectations, with negative growth in sales in the first quarter, negative growth in April, and increased inventory pressure.
It is understood that in the first quarter of 2011, the inventory of a leading apparel company rose from 2.54 billion yuan at the end of 2010 to 3.16 billion yuan, and the inventory scale increased by 4 times compared to the end of the first quarter of 2010. The company explained that it was mainly due to seasonal factors and early stocking, but market analysts believe that there are also reasons for slow sales.
The high inventory of home appliances and clothing industry is just a microcosm of national enterprises. From the national data, at the end of March, the inventory of finished products of industrial enterprises nationwide was 2367.1 billion yuan, up by 23.2% year-on-year; the increase rate was 1.1 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month.
The backlog of inventory did not improve in April. In April, the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) showed that the raw material inventory index for the month reached 52%, second only to the high level in January 2010.
As of the end of March, the amount of book inventory of listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen had reached 3.53 trillion yuan, surpassing the level before the financial crisis in 2008, and set a record high. Looking back at the situation of the entire A-share listed company in 2010, it is not difficult to find that real estate companies and resource processing companies are the most typical representatives of inventory increase. There are 12 listed companies with inventory increase of more than 10 billion yuan at the end of the year. enterprise.
It is difficult for manufacturing companies to have two ends. "Actually, accumulated stocks of listed companies have already started in the second half of 2009, and it has been particularly prominent in the second half of 2010." Chen Li, chief strategist at UBS Securities, said that from inflation to inventory, to Corporate profits have a positive cycle. Under the promotion of inflationary expectations, the increase in inventory will enable the purchase of raw materials and intermediate products to be reflected in the orders of upstream companies. The corresponding enterprises will have better profitability and strong operating growth. While corporate profits are better, and business growth is strong, it will lead to continued inflation.
However, at present, business operations are facing two hardships. One end is to increase raw material procurement for anti-inflation and the other is weak demand. Many companies use discounts, promotions, direct drops and other means to withdraw funds in order to destock.
In April, the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed that compared with the previous month, the raw material inventory index and the supplier delivery time index increased slightly; correspondingly, the new orders index and new export order index reflecting demand decreased by more than one. percentage point.
The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing reports that the current phenomenon of "more than one liter or two" appears in the enterprise, that is, the phenomenon of arrears in the settlement of accounts among enterprises has increased, and accounts receivable have increased; as the demanding party cannot pay in time, the supplier does not promptly The goods, both finished goods inventory and backlog orders rose. These two pressures have caused the current external environment of the enterprise to tighten, some small and medium-sized enterprises have increased their development difficulties, and production and business activities have declined.
Destocking risks The serious consequences of increasing the high inventory of listed companies in 2008 are still vivid.
Guotai Junan macroscopic research team believes that current PMI raw material inventory and finished product inventory are all at a high level. If future demand declines and finished product inventory continues to accumulate, and raw material inventory begins to decline due to the impact of downstream demand or commodity prices, then the economy will Faced with inventory risk.
Zhou Jintao, a macro analyst at CSC, believes that unlike the previous inventory cycle, this round of inventory cycles has always been conducted under financial constraints. Under the constraints of the cost of capital, the impulse to restock and expand production capacity is inhibited. In fact, the speed and intensity of restocking must be weaker than the normal inventory cycle. Therefore, the acceleration of this inventory cycle is relatively slow.
"Although it will not be as serious as it was in 2008, there are indeed concerns." Chen Li believes that inflation will inevitably lead to a tightening policy, and the tightening policy may break the positive cycle at a certain point in time. As a result, companies will have to reduce inventory, product prices will fall, corporate profits will decline, and thus enter a negative cycle.
However, there are also many analysts believe that in the case of a sharp drop in orders, the next inventory cycle may start, the future in the product demand and price levels to seek a new balance point, the market worried about the destocking cause greater economic fluctuations It will not happen.
The executives of a domestic color TV company whose stocks of listed companies hit a record high said that TV sales in the Shanghai market during the "May 1st" holiday period did not exceed expectations, with negative growth in sales in the first quarter, negative growth in April, and increased inventory pressure.
It is understood that in the first quarter of 2011, the inventory of a leading apparel company rose from 2.54 billion yuan at the end of 2010 to 3.16 billion yuan, and the inventory scale increased by 4 times compared to the end of the first quarter of 2010. The company explained that it was mainly due to seasonal factors and early stocking, but market analysts believe that there are also reasons for slow sales.
The high inventory of home appliances and clothing industry is just a microcosm of national enterprises. From the national data, at the end of March, the inventory of finished products of industrial enterprises nationwide was 2367.1 billion yuan, up by 23.2% year-on-year; the increase rate was 1.1 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month.
The backlog of inventory did not improve in April. In April, the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) showed that the raw material inventory index for the month reached 52%, second only to the high level in January 2010.
As of the end of March, the amount of book inventory of listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen had reached 3.53 trillion yuan, surpassing the level before the financial crisis in 2008, and set a record high. Looking back at the situation of the entire A-share listed company in 2010, it is not difficult to find that real estate companies and resource processing companies are the most typical representatives of inventory increase. There are 12 listed companies with inventory increase of more than 10 billion yuan at the end of the year. enterprise.
It is difficult for manufacturing companies to have two ends. "Actually, accumulated stocks of listed companies have already started in the second half of 2009, and it has been particularly prominent in the second half of 2010." Chen Li, chief strategist at UBS Securities, said that from inflation to inventory, to Corporate profits have a positive cycle. Under the promotion of inflationary expectations, the increase in inventory will enable the purchase of raw materials and intermediate products to be reflected in the orders of upstream companies. The corresponding enterprises will have better profitability and strong operating growth. While corporate profits are better, and business growth is strong, it will lead to continued inflation.
However, at present, business operations are facing two hardships. One end is to increase raw material procurement for anti-inflation and the other is weak demand. Many companies use discounts, promotions, direct drops and other means to withdraw funds in order to destock.
In April, the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed that compared with the previous month, the raw material inventory index and the supplier delivery time index increased slightly; correspondingly, the new orders index and new export order index reflecting demand decreased by more than one. percentage point.
The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing reports that the current phenomenon of "more than one liter or two" appears in the enterprise, that is, the phenomenon of arrears in the settlement of accounts among enterprises has increased, and accounts receivable have increased; as the demanding party cannot pay in time, the supplier does not promptly The goods, both finished goods inventory and backlog orders rose. These two pressures have caused the current external environment of the enterprise to tighten, some small and medium-sized enterprises have increased their development difficulties, and production and business activities have declined.
Destocking risks The serious consequences of increasing the high inventory of listed companies in 2008 are still vivid.
Guotai Junan macroscopic research team believes that current PMI raw material inventory and finished product inventory are all at a high level. If future demand declines and finished product inventory continues to accumulate, and raw material inventory begins to decline due to the impact of downstream demand or commodity prices, then the economy will Faced with inventory risk.
Zhou Jintao, a macro analyst at CSC, believes that unlike the previous inventory cycle, this round of inventory cycles has always been conducted under financial constraints. Under the constraints of the cost of capital, the impulse to restock and expand production capacity is inhibited. In fact, the speed and intensity of restocking must be weaker than the normal inventory cycle. Therefore, the acceleration of this inventory cycle is relatively slow.
"Although it will not be as serious as it was in 2008, there are indeed concerns." Chen Li believes that inflation will inevitably lead to a tightening policy, and the tightening policy may break the positive cycle at a certain point in time. As a result, companies will have to reduce inventory, product prices will fall, corporate profits will decline, and thus enter a negative cycle.
However, there are also many analysts believe that in the case of a sharp drop in orders, the next inventory cycle may start, the future in the product demand and price levels to seek a new balance point, the market worried about the destocking cause greater economic fluctuations It will not happen.
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