[China Glass Network] The recurrence of history: the same trade deficit in 2011 as in the first quarter of 2003 and the first quarter of 2004, the recurrence of the trade deficit in the first quarter shows that domestic demand is relatively strong, at least the capacity utilization rate of traditional industries should be proved. Higher. The reason may be that domestically, after four trillion investment plans in 2008, the implementation of energy conservation and emission reduction measures in the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†has led to a higher degree of de-capacity in some traditional industries.
In the first quarter of 2011, the value of imports reached a record high, surpassing $400 billion for the first time, an increase of 5.1% from the fourth quarter of last year. The strong growth in imports led to a trade deficit of $1.02 billion, followed by a trade deficit since 2004.
In the second quarter strategy "Return to Tradition", one of the important logics is that the utilization rate of traditional industries is high, and the economic prosperity of these industries is judged to be high. From the data point of view, the utilization hours of power generation equipment are still rising gradually. The current utilization hours of power generation equipment are close to the level of 2002, indicating that the downstream demand slowdown has not been reflected, at least indicating that the capacity utilization rate of the traditional heavy chemical industry is improving. It also proves that its de-capacity is coming to an end. The reason is that the investment in the two high-investment assets in the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†has slowed down, and the supply caused by the initiative to de-capacity has been reduced. From the historical experience of the past, history also has certain similarities. A similar capacity bottleneck for traditional industries emerged between 2002 and 2004. From the evolution of the production cycle, the power generation utilization hours (the capacity utilization rate is increased), after the bottleneck is reached, the supply and demand are tightly balanced (limited power), and then the investment is increased to increase the installed capacity of the power supply and release the supply.
Next week, the data for the first quarter of 2011 will be released. It is necessary to pay attention to price data. It is more important to pay attention to the quarterly and year-on-year growth of the economic quarterly data. At present, inflation is more than 5% is a consensus expectation. Whether the face data is in line with expectations, if it is lower than expected, it may increase the fluctuation of the stock market. At present, during the annual report period, the trend is still the annual report market. The better performance of listed companies is an important basis for maintaining this judgment. As of the 10th, the published annual report of 1384 listed companies shows that the net interest rate attributable to the parent company is 40%.
Return to tradition
In the second quarter, the industry's allocations returned to the tradition, and the core of the allocation was “energy†and “raw materialsâ€. At present, the main industries are mainly building materials, coal, and some chemical industries. In the midstream, some low-end manufacturing industries that are affected by cost, especially those with limited cost and digestibility, can reduce matching, such as light manufacturing. In the short term, you can focus on some traditional industries that have exceeded expectations, such as electricity. From a medium-term perspective, it is still optimistic about the manufacturing industry.
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