On August 31, the Guangxi market remained relatively quiet, with the silk market showing a weak trend. Prices fluctuated narrowly within the high range but experienced a slight decline, maintaining a fragile stability. Overall, the upward momentum of high-priced silk stocks remains strong, with prices hitting historical highs. The two-day drop might be a temporary pullback following a sharp rise in the previous period. As we approach Qiuyu (the end of summer), uncertainty persists among market participants regarding reeling prices for the second half of the year. Therefore, it is still advisable to remain cautious and observe the market carefully.
On the same day, the highest price for dried cognac reached 85,700 yuan, while raw silk hit 325,000 yuan. A total of 28 batches of dried cognac were traded, and 90 batches of raw silk transactions took place. In the spot market, the price for 100/200D factory-tested double-wire silk was 305,000 yuan, and 20/22D4A silk was offered at 338,000 yuan.
Looking at the recent week’s cognac contract prices, the price of 4,000 yuan per batch stood at 910, with 5 orders placed. As the trading day for the near-term main contract 093 approached, the price rose by 100 yuan to close at 85,700 yuan, with 16 batches traded and 43 orders. For the far-month main contract 10033, the price dropped by 200 yuan to close at 85,200 yuan, with 8 batches traded and 32 orders. In the raw silk market, the 091 contract closed at 332,000 yuan, while 093 fell by 500 yuan to 325,000 yuan, with 18 batches traded and 334 orders. The 11033 contract dropped by 1,500 yuan to 316,000 yuan, with 68 batches traded and 542 orders—slightly lower than the previous day.
With the approaching last trading day of the near-term main contract, frequent movements in both near and long-term contracts, along with the unpredictable impact of the upcoming IPO pricing, are expected to result in lower trading volumes. While the overall growth trend is likely to continue, the pace and extent of price increases will not be significant. The market is expected to remain volatile at higher price levels.
As September begins, autumn harvesting and drying activities are about to start nationwide. There is uncertainty about whether the production of autumn mulberry could worsen the raw material shortage due to poor quality from the summer harvest. Market opinions vary on whether output will increase or decrease. Only through close monitoring of the data from the autumn harvest can accurate decisions be made.
According to information from local sources, small-scale listings of autumn silkworms have already begun in Binyang, a major silkworm-producing area in southern Guangxi. The purchase price is around 29 yuan/kg, with better quality compared to summer silkworms. Local silkworm disease incidence is low, and yields for the autumn crop are expected to be optimistic. In drought-affected areas in western regions, particularly in Yunnan, some small-scale autumn crops have also been listed recently. Reports indicate that the quality of the cocoons is good, with an estimated yield of around 300 kg per hectare. The purchase price is very low, roughly between 37–38 yuan/kg. Local inquiries suggest that the cost of acquiring cocoons is approximately 89,000 yuan, though this is only observed in a limited area and may not yet be fully representative.
After the mass listing of Qiuyu silk, it is essential to rationally assess and analyze the yield and quality across different regions to stay ahead in the face of market volatility.
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