On August 31, the Guangxi market remained relatively quiet, with the silk market showing signs of weakness. Prices fluctuated narrowly within a high range but ultimately showed a slight decline, maintaining a fragile stability. Overall, the trend for high-priced silk stocks remains strong, with prices hitting historical highs. The two-day drop might just be a temporary correction after a sharp upward movement in the previous period. As we approach the Qiuyu season, market participants remain uncertain about the reeling prices in the second half of the year. It’s advisable to stay cautious and observe the market closely.
On the same day, the highest price for cognac reached 85,700 yuan, while raw silk hit 325,000 yuan. A total of 28 batches of dried cognac were traded, and 90 batches of raw silk transactions were recorded. In the spot market, the price for 100/200D factory-tested double-wire silk was 305,000 yuan, while 20/22D4A checks were offered at 338,000 yuan.
Looking at the recent week, the contract price for cognac was set at 4,000 yuan, with 910 orders placed for 5 batches. As the trading day for the main contract 093 approached, the price rose by 100 yuan to close at 85,700 yuan, with 16 transactions and 43 orders. Meanwhile, the far-month main contract 10033 fell by 200 yuan to close at 85,200 yuan, with 8 transactions and 32 orders. For raw silk, the 091 application price stood at 332,000 yuan, while 093 dropped by 500 yuan to close at 325,000 yuan, with 18 transactions and 334 orders. The 11033 contract fell by 1,500 yuan to close at 316,000 yuan, with 68 transactions and 542 orders, slightly lower than the previous day.
With the upcoming last trading day for the current main contracts, frequent movements in near and long-term contracts, and the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming IPO price, it's expected that trading volumes will remain low during this period. While the overall growth trend is likely to continue, the pace and extent of price increases may not be significant, and the high-price range is expected to persist.
As September begins, the national autumn harvesting and drying process is about to start. There are mixed opinions in the market regarding whether the production of autumn mulberry will lead to a shortage of raw materials due to poor summer mulberry quality. Whether output increases or decreases remains unclear, and only through close monitoring of fall data can accurate decisions be made.
In Binyang, a silkworm-producing area in southern Guangxi, the autumn harvest has started on a small scale. The purchase price is around 29 yuan/kg, with better quality compared to summer silkworms. Local silkworm disease incidence is low, and yield estimates for the autumn crop look promising. In some drought-affected areas in Yunnan, a small number of autumn crops have also been listed recently, with good cocoon quality. Estimated yields are about 300 kg per batch, with purchase prices as low as 37–38 yuan/kg. Local inquiries suggest acquisition costs around 89,000 yuan, though these figures are limited to a small region and may not yet be widely representative.
Once Qiuyu is fully listed, it will be important to analyze the yield and quality of the autumn harvest across different regions to stay ahead in the volatile market.
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