Early assessment of cotton: Cotton companies concerned about the continued weakness of the cotton quota market

First, electronic coupling:

On June 13th, the opening market was mixed, with a narrow intraday volatility and a near-term uptrend. The transaction volume of commercial cotton blending trade in the national cotton trade market was 10,860 tons, which was a decrease of 2,720 tons from the previous day. The order quantity was reduced by 340 tons and the accumulated orders were 148,900 tons.

Second, the ** market 1. ICE: Most cotton prices rose on Wednesday. The market ignored the US Department of Agriculture's supply and demand report, which was bad in the previous session, and turned its attention to rollover trading, which weighed on the spot July contract to support the December contract. The benchmark December contract settled 1.57 cents higher at 70.41 cents per pound.

2. Zhengzhou: The main contract of Zhengmian was closed. The recent contract was lower under the pressure of long liquidation. The long-term contract was depressed by short sellers, and the short-term was filled in the afternoon. The support price rebounded and the daily line formed a small Yin line. The volume of transactions in the day contracted. , Open interest decreased. On the day of the CF1209 contract, 31,624 lots were hand-picked, 5114 lots were lightened, and 159,854 lots were placed in the final position. On the day of the CF1301 contract, 277,144 lots were traded, and 198 lots were lightened daily, with 277,144 lots of open positions.

Third, the spot market:

Wei Qiao offer: Three levels: 18500 (temporary stop)

CC INDEX328: 18,405 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan.

Other: The average price of 527 cotton to the factory was 16,160 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. The spot price of lint continues to decline, and the trend of the two electronic discs is weak. The domestic and foreign cotton prices continue to increase. For textile companies with difficult operations, the lower-priced outer cotton is still the first choice. The port currently stocks a large number of foreign cotton without customs clearance. Most enterprises are concerned about the issuance of import quotas and thus determine the vitality of the enterprise. As for the cotton vice, market representativeness has declined due to the fact that the market has entered the off-season. The supply of cottonseeds was scarce and the prices were flat; the prices of cottonseed oil and cotton linters continued to be weak; the prices of cottonseed meal continued to pick up. On the downstream side, the overall yarn market slowed down and the price fell weakly.

Fourth, the macro environment: As of June 11, ICE cotton stocks were 133,675 bags. The US May Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 1% from the previous month. US stocks ended lower, investors waited for the results of the Greek elections, and US retail sales fell.

V. Operational recommendations: Zheng cotton CF1301 contract fell flat to close the small Yin line, the daily line was suppressed by the 10-day moving average, the intraday shock adjustment to the main center of gravity is slightly lower, the trend is still in bearish pattern; hour pattern narrow consolidation, pay The investment focus is still below the 20-matrix, and the focus of the trading in the past two days is moving down the vicinity of the lower track of the consolidation zone. The action is insufficient, but there is support near the early gap. Operational advice: wait and see.

Sixth, the trend test: 1301 rise (neutral), wait and see arbitrage operation: sell in January to buy May, hold to 20%

Agency Source: Jin Peng**

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