August 5th financial breakfast: the non-agricultural report helps the US dollar stocks

Huitong.com August 5th - The US non-agricultural report in July, which is closely watched by the market, has settled. The good employment and salary increase have made the market feel strong in the US labor market. Although this non-agricultural report has performed well, given that the current US inflation level is still below the Fed's 2% target, the Fed's speculation of raising interest rates during the year remains the hottest focus of the market. Next week, the US will release PPI and CPI data, and the performance of these two data may lead the market trend next week.



Preview on Monday:

--:-- Some OPEC and non-OPEC countries met to discuss why some of them failed to reduce oil production as promised (August 7-8).
01:25 The chairman of the Federal Reserve of Minneapolis, USA, and the 2017 FOMC voter Kashkari delivered a speech.

Review on Friday:
1 Reserve Bank of Australia: Maintaining economic growth and medium-term inflation targets;
2 Deputy Governor of the Bank of England: It is expected that UK salary will accelerate in the next few years;
3 The number of Canadian employment in July was slightly lower than expected;
4 The US non-agricultural report in July showed great performance;
5 White House National Security Adviser: Working on major tax cuts;
6 The number of Baker Hughes rigs declined slightly;
7 The export rankings in the first half of the year were released: Guangdong’s total volume was the first, and Ningxia’s growth rate was the first;
8 The parties are ready, and the listing of crude oil futures is only waiting for the door.

[List of major global markets]

stock market

European stocks closed higher on Friday as bank stocks rose, offsetting the negative impact of the fall in the share prices of Swiss reinsurers and UK home builders. US stocks continued to rise on Friday, the Dow rose 0.3%, hitting a record high for the eighth consecutive trading day. US non-farm payrolls data in July exceeded expectations, pushing US stocks higher against the US dollar.

futures

The price of gold fell on Friday. After the July non-farm payrolls report released by the US Department of Labor showed that employment growth exceeded expectations in the month, the US dollar exchange rate rose sharply to pressure the price of gold. Oil prices closed sharply higher on Friday, but fell in the overall trading this week. Investors are concerned about the OPEC meeting scheduled for next week to assess how the member states of the organization are complying with the production reduction agreement.

In addition to the above quotes for gold, silver and crude oil, Huitong.com also quotes the Shanghai Gold Exchange for you.

Foreign exchange

The US dollar index hit its biggest one-day gain in the year on Friday after the US employment report was strong in July, and Cohen, the director of the White House National Economic Council, delivered a speech on the downgrade of US corporate taxes. The US dollar index jumped about 1% to a one-week high of 93.774 after the US Department of Labor announced that non-agricultural jobs increased by 209,000 in July. In addition, onshore renminbi closed at 6.7295 yuan against the US dollar, down 120 points from yesterday's close.

[International Finance News]

[Australian Federal Reserve: Maintaining Economic Growth and Medium-Term Inflation Targets] The Reserve Bank of Australia's quarterly monetary policy report shows that the Reserve Bank of Australia maintains its policy unchanged, in line with sustained economic growth and medium-term inflation targets. Recent data is positive, consistent with CPI and employment data expectations. Inflation expectations are not much different from the May forecast. A further appreciation of the Australian dollar will lower economic growth and inflation. The appreciation of the Australian dollar has little effect on economic growth expectations, and the GDP is expected to be moderately reduced.

[BBC deputy governor: UK salary is expected to accelerate in the next few years] Bank of England deputy governor Broadbent expects that the UK salary will accelerate in the next few years, the economy may be able to cope with the Bank of England to raise interest rates. We have correctly played the role of raising interest rates before and should not worry too much about raising interest rates. Interest rates are likely to rise slightly.

[Barclays Bank: oil prices are expected to be adjusted this quarter] Barclays Bank analysts pointed out that oil prices are expected to fall back this quarter. Affected by inventory digestion and OPEC production restrictions, continue to bullish Brent crude oil, is expected to average $54 / barrel in the fourth quarter of 2017, Brent crude oil is expected to reach an average price of 52 US dollars / barrel in 2017 and 2018.

[German factory order data is better than expected] The data shows that the factory order rate in Germany in June is 1%, expected to be 0.5%; Germany's June factory adjusted annual factory orders rate is 5.1%, expected 4.4%.

[Canada employment in July was slightly lower than expected] Canadian employment data released on Friday night showed that Canada's employment in July increased by 10.9 million, expected to increase by 12,500; Canada's unemployment rate in July was 6.3%, expected 6.5%. Canada’s employment participation rate in July was 65.7%, with a previous value of 65.9%.

[US non-agricultural report in July] non-agricultural report shows that the US non-agricultural employment population in July +209 million, expected +180,000; US unemployment rate in July was 4.3%, a 16-year low, expected 4.3%; In July, the labor force participation rate was 62.9%, the former value was 62.8%; the average monthly hourly wage rate in the United States in July was 0.3%, which was the maximum growth rate of five months, expected to be 0.3%, and the previous value was 0.2%.

[Analytical Review of US Non-farm Employment Data for July] US non-agricultural employment growth was better than expected in July. The unemployment rate was flat with the 16-year low, and the monthly salary rate reached the maximum growth rate of 5 months. Salary growth may indicate that companies are beginning to raise salaries to attract or retain employees, but are constrained by weak productivity, which is roughly the same as the average of the past two years. The overall data shows that employment is better than expected, but inflation is not the target is still the main challenge facing the Fed.

[White House National Security Advisor: Committed to Major Tax Cuts] US White House National Security Advisor Cohen said that we are working on major tax cuts and need to implement long-term tax reforms. We are committed to reducing taxes for companies as much as possible. We hope that the company will bring the funds back to the United States. I hope to submit a comprehensive tax reform proposal in the fall. It is important that the US tax rate is still higher than that of other OECD countries, and it is important to reduce the US corporate tax by 35% to the average of 23% in the OECD countries.

[The number of Baker Hughes rigs has dropped slightly] According to data released by Baker Hughes, the number of active oil rigs in the US on August 4 decreased by one to 765; the number of natural gas drills in the US during the week of August 4 Reduced by 3 to 189; on August 4, the total drilling in the United States decreased by 4 to 954.

[United States officially submitted a letter of intent to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement] The US State Department officially notified the United Nations: intends to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement, but if "can see more favorable terms for the United States, American companies, American workers, the public and taxpayers," the President Rump "is still open to joining again."

[Domestic financial news]

Domestic macro [the first half of the export rankings released: the first in Guangdong, the first in Ningxia) According to the information gathered from various regions, the trade in the export provinces in the first half of this year is growing rapidly, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Shandong. The export volume ranks in the top five in the country. In terms of growth rate, the highest growth rate of exports in the first half of this year was in Ningxia, with a growth rate of 143.4%.

[Ministry of Commerce: China's service import and export achieved double-digit growth in the first half of 2017] On August 4, the head of the Department of Trade and Industry of the Ministry of Commerce made a speech on the import and export of China's services in the first half of 2017. In the first half of 2017, China's service import and export achieved double-digit growth, with a total import and export volume of 2,287.14 billion yuan, an annual increase of 12.9%.

Domestic stock market [military stocks soared collectively, Fangda carbon high diving prices rose theme] Shanghai and Shenzhen stocks opened slightly lower, in early trading in the steel, coal, colored plates, shocked upside, the end of the decline. The military sector is now out of the market in the afternoon, and nearly 10 stocks have a strong daily limit.

[All parties are ready, crude oil futures listing is only waiting for the door] As the preparations for crude oil futures in the technical system come to an end, the focus of preparations for crude oil futures by various market players has been transferred to market development and investor education. “At present, Shandong basically has two or three large-scale crude oil promotion meetings every week.”

[The total size of public offerings has exceeded 10 trillion mark, a record high] The latest data from the fund industry association shows that the total number, total share and total net asset value of public funds have further hit record highs, and the scale of public funds managed by public fund management institutions Breaking through the 10 trillion mark, reaching 10.07 trillion yuan.

Domestic property market [house enterprises accelerate overseas financing, fleeing from "integrated"] data show that in July alone, housing companies overseas financing totaled 3.28 billion US dollars. Industry insiders said that housing companies are ushering in a new round of scale competition, and some enterprises even expand the scale at any cost to avoid "integration" in this round of real estate integration. At the same time, the regulation of the domestic market has obviously tightened, and the difficulty of domestic financing has increased, so that the housing enterprises eager to expand have to go to high prices in overseas markets to obtain funds.

[Fuzhou property market regulation upgrade! The five departments issued a document prohibiting the price increase bundled sales] Fuzhou City notice clearly prohibits bundled tying and setting conditions for the sale of commercial housing, price increase and collection of unmarked fees, reluctance to sell and batch sales and other irregularities. For the violation of market sales regulations, the housing management department investigates and handles according to law, and suspends the project online registration for serious cases until the pre-sale permit for commercial housing is cancelled.

Domestic industry [Guangdong Province's digital economy contributes 53.5% to the entity] Guangdong's digital economy has occupied half of the total economic output, and the digital economy has contributed more than 53.5% to the real economy. The "Internet +" digital economy index of Guangdong Province has the distinctive characteristics of "the total index and the growth rate". The total index is far ahead of the second to fifth place in Beijing, Shanghai, Zhejiang and Jiangsu. In Fujian, ahead of Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Beijing.

[Xinjiang produced 7.8 tons of gold in the first half of the year, and the amount of decline in value increased.] In the first half of this year, due to the impact of climate and enterprise shutdowns, Xinjiang produced 7.8 tons of gold, an annual rate of 2.04%, but benefited from the rise in gold prices, Xinjiang. Gold enterprises achieved sales revenue of 2.178 billion yuan, an annual growth rate of 4.23%.

[Average price of major foods in 50 cities in late July: pork prices fell] According to the website of the National Bureau of Statistics, the statistics bureau released the average price changes of major foods in 50 cities. Compared with mid-July, rice, rapeseed, Chinese cabbage, etc. 15 The prices of food commodities increased, with rapeseed rising at a maximum of 14.8%; prices of 11 food commodities such as pork, beef and mutton fell.

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