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Original title: The things behind the rise and fall of cotton in 2016
In 2016, the cotton market is fascinating, what is the logic behind the ups and downs? What are the major factors in the logic of decision making, and what are the expectations and outlook for the future of the cotton market in 2017? (I) In the second half of 2016, the cotton price market showed a main tone. The cotton purchase price showed an irrational increase in September, which exceeded the acceptable capacity of downstream enterprises. Therefore, by mid-October, due to the influence of downstream consumption, the price appeared slightly. Fall back and stay in a relatively stable phase. Because textile companies are vulnerable to the price of raw materials, excessive increases often directly affect consumption. At the same time, the overall prices of yarns and fabrics in the downstream market remain stable, and there is no large-scale increase due to the rise of upstream cotton. Therefore, from October After the middle and late, the overall cotton market is a price key. Since the textile industry accounts for a small proportion of the entire industrial product manufacturing index, but the overall operation is basically the same, it is also relatively warm, and lasts for nearly the entire cotton year. In general, the overall operation of the cotton spinning industry is better than the overall textile industry. . Compared with the slight increase in cotton prices in October, the price increase of cotton in April is inevitable. Since the cotton market before April, including cotton prices in the international market, was generally bearish, the investment in all futures varieties, coupled with the objective factors of policy and market fundamentals, led to an overall price increase. After the current round of the rise, the cotton market has gradually turned from the initial very pessimistic to more optimistic, that is, from the short-selling to the excessive situation, this situation has not yet ended, and this trend is not over. The characteristics of the cotton market in 2016 are as follows: (1) New and old cotton parallel: Cotton was purchased by textile companies at the beginning of the year, so it has an impact on the sales of new cotton. This kind of influence may result in the parallel sales of new cotton and reserve cotton in the second half of this year's cotton year, that is, after March 2017. This situation was not seen last year. 2) The overall quality of Xinjiang cotton this year is preferred, so overall, for the entire textile cotton, it is better than the same period last year. But for textile companies that produce low-end yarns, the raw materials are not as plentiful as last year. 3) This year's mentality is different from last year. This kind of bullish mentality is reflected in the market price at the beginning of the year, that is, the cotton purchase price is too high, which causes the upstream purchase and sale enterprises and processing enterprises to be upside down. It is also upside down. (2) What are the performances of the domestic cotton spot market and futures market in 2016? The domestic spot market is highly correlated. More and more entities, including cotton acquisition and processing companies and purchase and sale companies, are using the futures market to hedge against risks, so with the reform of cotton from the target price in 2012 In the future, the market sensitivity of this enterprise is strengthening, and the market awareness of enterprises is strengthening. Therefore, there is a growing resonance between the spot. The futures market reflects the expectation of the market. The spot market tends to make some adjustments as expected. In the international market, China's reserve cotton policy has established a domestic and international price linkage, and China's policy plays a pivotal role in the global cotton market. . (III) Impact of the new cotton market and cotton policy on the overall cotton market in 2016 1) By the end of October, 70% of the cotton storage and storage work has been completed. In September, it has entered the peak of receiving goods. According to the statistics of Xinjiang cotton professional warehousing in the national cotton trading market in early November, the approximate purchase volume has exceeded 70%, the processing volume has exceeded half, the storage volume is 40%, and the inspection volume is close to 40%. In the cheats processing period, until December, it will all be over. But new cotton sales are not as good as in previous years. From the daily acquisition, processing and warehousing progress of Xinjiang cotton professional warehousing to track the national cotton trading market, 2016 is roughly the same as the same period of 2015. However, three of the 610,000 tons decided that the cotton market is not enthusiastic about the purchase of new cotton, but the price of cotton is firm. According to the statistics of China Cotton Information Network, the national cotton commercial inventory was basically 610,000 tons before the end of August, and the industrial inventory was 610,000 tons. In addition, in September, it was postponed for one month, and the total amount of actual storage was The trading volume is 610,000 tons, and the three 61s determine the new cotton annual listing this year, which is different from the previous year. This is also an important reason for supporting the recent price to be firmer, not to fall sharply, or even to say a small increase. 2) The policy impact will be manifested in the second half of the cotton and according to the rules set out in the announcement of the reserve cotton rotation, the normalization rotation mechanism of the reserve cotton is rounded out during the period from March to August each year, that is, under the cotton year. Half a year begins. Before the introduction of new policy measures, the existing policies will not affect the entire market. Of course, its impact will gradually be gradually reflected after the Spring Festival next year. 3) Three swords that affect the cotton market – have limited effect on the current cotton market. One is the pilot price reform of cotton in Xinjiang. This pilot actually puts the whole cotton into the market and operates according to the market mechanism. Another policy reserve cotton rotation policy, you may be more concerned about the current round of rotation, that is, China's history has accumulated up to 11 million tons of reserve cotton stocks, such high inventory equivalent to China's entire cotton consumption for one and a half years It is equivalent to half of the global consumption, and this inventory is very large. Therefore, it is not only for China, but also for the international market. The third policy is a policy of import quotas for cotton. After China entered the market, the Chinese government promised to issue a quota of 894,000 tons per year. On this basis, according to the domestic cotton supply and demand gap, it is decided to issue a partial sliding tax quota, but the sliding quota is very flexible, not necessarily every year. Give it all. In the past two years, when the reserve cotton was rounded up, the quota was not available, and it was only promised to be the 89.4 tariff quota. Because the number of quotas is fixed, the policy does not currently have a particularly large impact on the industry as a whole. 2017's expectations for the cotton market – stability and win-win 1) For the purchase and sale of enterprises, on the one hand, cotton is a seasonal acquisition and annual consumption of agricultural products, this feature determines the financial pressure is relatively large when listed each year. Many companies need to raise funds through agricultural loans, industrial bank loans, etc., which in turn, from the interest of funds in the cycle of operation, and some warehouse custody will continue to increase costs. On the other hand, with the price of the cotton market in the long-term consumption process, it is constantly fluctuating. When the cotton that is acquired can achieve stable sales, especially when it can realize value-added, it can be without loss. The problems that cotton buying and selling enterprises must face. Therefore, the most hope of the purchase and sale enterprises is that they can have stable market prices and maintain relatively stable sales, so that the risk of running a business in a year will be better. 2) For the upstream and downstream of the cotton industry, if the cotton market is to be developed in a long-term and stable manner, it must meet the interests of the upstream and downstream industries. Only in this way, everyone's interests are mutually beneficial, and interests are not maximized, but relatively speaking, everyone can benefit, and in the case that all parties in the industrial chain can benefit, it can ensure a long-term effective, stable and stable development of the entire industry. The cotton market cannot be unilaterally prosperous at the expense of any industry link. This is not only a personal and a consensus of the entire industry. Although cotton is actually an agricultural product, its industrial chain is very long. From agriculture to industry, it has always affected our export and export trade. It has financial properties in finance, and it is in the entire futures market. There is a place in the commodity market. Therefore, we are involved in all aspects of the impact. Under such circumstances, we feel that this industry chain can better benefit and cooperate with each other in the upstream and downstream, achieve a stable income, smooth operation of cotton prices, stable operation of the entire industry, this is China. A very important core for the development of the cotton industry. Therefore, we have made efforts in this industry both upstream and downstream. (Wall Street sees)
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