On Thursday, the US dollar rally paused. The Iranian foreign minister hinted that the nuclear agreement has no room for negotiation. The market is expected to decline in the ongoing Sino-US trade consultation. Gold has thus continued to stabilize and rebound. The British Sullom Voe crude oil terminal was forced to close and the oil price continued to rise. Potential.
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· On Thursday (May 3), gold futures closed up 0.54% at $1312.8 per ounce; silver futures closed up 0.27% at $16.45 per ounce. The US dollar’s ​​rally was suspended, the Iranian foreign minister’s statement on the refusal to change the nuclear deal and the Sino-US trade negotiations were opened, stimulating bullish bottoming and short-covering to push for a rebound in gold. Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif said that Iran will not negotiate on the addition of new clauses in the Iranian nuclear agreement, nor will it accept the addition of new provisions. This statement has caused the risk aversion to heat up. The delegation led by U.S. Treasury Secretary Nuchin has arrived in Beijing to exchange views with China on economic and trade issues. The outside world believes that the possibility of signing a groundbreaking agreement after the negotiations and making a fundamental change in China's economic policy is negligible. This will also benefit the gold price to a certain extent. However, if China agrees to adopt some short-term measures, it may delay the US decision to impose tariffs. .
· US oil futures closed up 1.21% to $68.50/barrel; oil futures closed up 0.83% to $73.68/barrel. Declining OPEC production and the possibility of the US to restart Iranian sanctions will continue the rise in oil prices, but the negative impact of both US crude oil inventories and production growth is still fermenting. Marketwatch analysts said that the possibility of the US exiting the Iranian nuclear deal and the IMF's threat of expelling Venezuela's membership have caused the market to worry about global crude oil supply or tension. On the other hand, due to the forced closure of the British Sullom Voe crude oil terminal, the supply of crude oil in the North Sea was reduced, which also provided effective support for oil prices on Thursday. In addition, foreign media survey results show that OPEC crude oil production continued to decline in April, as Venezuela's crude oil production continued to decline.
· The US dollar index closed down 0.33% to 92.42. The non-agricultural report was released soon. The dollar bullish wait-and-see sentiment rose. The euro/dollar closed up 0.31% to 1.1985. The exchange rate had a short-term diving due to weak eurozone inflation; GBP/ The US dollar closed down 0.04% to 1.3573. The weak PMI data of the UK service industry in April further weakened the expectation of the Bank of England to raise interest rates next week. The USD/JPY closed down 0.58% to 109.18, and the Iranian Foreign Minister refused to change its nuclear position. After the agreement, the dollar fell sharply against the yen.
Precious metals: Iranian Foreign Minister's speech ignited risk aversion, long-term short-selling short-covering to promote gold rebound
On the occasion of the resurgence of the Iranian nuclear crisis, the opening of Sino-US trade negotiations and the success of a series of data from the United States, the US dollar index rose on Thursday (May 3), the US stock market rebounded, and the international gold price was bought at bargain hunting. Continued to rise with the support of short covering, has regained the top of the 1310 line. The Iranian Foreign Minister’s remarks made the price of gold soar in the short term. As of the close, the main contract price of COMEX gold futures rose 0.54% to 1312.8 US dollars / ounce; the price of silver futures main contract rose 0.27% to 16.45 US dollars / ounce.
COMEX's most active gold futures contract traded at 6,575 lots in 19:48 Beijing time on Thursday, with a total value of nearly $900 million in trading contracts, boosting spot gold short-term gains by nearly $5. Behind this rise is the possibility of a further rise in the Iranian nuclear deal. According to the latest news from foreign media, Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif said that Iran will not negotiate on the addition of new clauses in the Iranian nuclear agreement, and will never accept the addition of new provisions. This statement has caused the risk aversion to heat up. Reuters quoted the White House sources as saying that Trump had almost decided to withdraw the Iranian nuclear agreement.
The US economic data released during the day was mixed. The data showed that the number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the US until April 28 was 211,000, which was higher than the previous value of 20.9 but lower than the expected 22.5, but still below 300,000 for 165 consecutive weeks. The mark, the longest time since 1970, shows that the US labor market continues to tighten. The US trade account for March was -49 billion US dollars, which was smaller than the previous value and expectations. The final value of the US Markit service PMI in April was 54.6, higher than the previous value and expectations; the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI was 56.8 in April. Lower than the previous value and expected, for three months; US March factory orders monthly rate of 1.6%, higher than the previous value and expectations.
Affected by multiple uncertainties such as China-US trade consultation, Fed hawks policy, and geopolitics in the Middle East, US stocks opened lower on Thursday, but closed lower in early trading. The Dow closed down by 400 points and closed up 5.17 points. 0.23%, the Nasdaq fell 0.18%. US stocks ushered in adjustments in favor of the gold bulls counterattack.
CNBC said that the delegation led by US Finance Minister Nuchin has arrived in Beijing to exchange views with China on economic and trade issues. The focus of global investors' attention has also shifted from the Fed's policy to the ongoing Sino-US trade consultation, and market sentiment is very tight. The outside world believes that the possibility of signing a groundbreaking agreement after the negotiations and making a fundamental change in China's economic policy is negligible. This will also benefit the gold price to a certain extent. However, if China agrees to adopt some short-term measures, it may delay the US decision to impose tariffs. .
On Friday (May 3), at 20:30 in the evening, the market will welcome non-agricultural data from the US in April. Non-agricultural accidents broke out last month, which shocked the confidence of some investors and also affected the expectation of raising interest rates during the year. Whether the non-agricultural sector can turn things around is undoubtedly worthy of close attention from the market.
Crude oil: Iran’s nuclear agreement is on the verge of a line, and British crude oil terminal is forced to close oil prices and continue its gains
International oil prices continued to rise on Thursday due to falling OPEC production and the possibility of the US restarting Iranian sanctions, but the negative impact of both US crude oil inventories and production growth is still fermenting. As of the close, the main contract price of NYMEX US WTI crude oil futures rose 1.21% to US$68.50/barrel; the main contract of ICE Brent crude oil futures rose 0.83% to US$73.68/barrel.
Marketwatch analysts said that the possibility of the US exiting the Iranian nuclear deal and the IMF's threat of expelling Venezuela's membership have caused the market to worry about global crude oil supply or tension. Judging from Iran’s foreign minister Zarif’s statement, Iran’s nuclear agreement with the current version is extremely persistent and does not want to change it. If the confrontational situation continues, the withdrawal of the United States from the Iranian nuclear agreement is expected to be a foregone conclusion, which will certainly aggravate the unrest in the Middle East.
On the other hand, due to the forced closure of the British Sullom Voe crude oil terminal, the supply of crude oil in the North Sea was reduced, which also provided effective support for oil prices on Thursday. According to foreign media sources, the Sullom Voe oil terminal is expected to restart this Sunday.
In addition, foreign media survey results show that OPEC crude oil production continued to decline in April, as Venezuela's crude oil production continued to decline. According to Russian data, the country's crude oil output remained unchanged at 10.97 million barrels per day in April, and continued to fulfill its production reduction commitment. Despite this, rising US crude oil production continues to threaten production cuts. Last week, US crude oil production continued to record a new high of 10.62 million barrels per day, further approaching Russian production.
(Editor: Liu Xiaoman HF108)
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