The end of cotton purchasing and storage system

With the approval of the State Council, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, and the Ministry of Agriculture jointly announced the 2014 cotton target price of 19,800 yuan per ton, which marks the end of the three-year interim cotton purchase and storage policy. Although relevant rules have not yet been issued, according to industry sources, the details of the direct supplement may be announced at the end of this month or early next month.

However, after the Ching Ming Festival, the market misunderstood the price, and ** market prices also rebounded sharply. However, cotton collection, storage and direct supplementation are two different regulatory policies and have different effects on the industrial structure. It is understood that China started implementing the minimum grain purchase policy in 2004 and began implementing the policy of temporary grain storage and storage in 2008. However, the purchase and storage system intended to protect the interests of farmers has also distorted the market, resulting in domestic and foreign grain prices, raw grain and finished grain prices. Upside down.

Earlier, Chen Xiwen, deputy head of the Central Rural Work Leading Group, said: "This year we will only launch these two pilots. One is cotton, one is soybean, and cotton is limited to Xinjiang. Soybean is Northeast and Inner Mongolia."

The director of the Bureau of International Cooperation of the State Council Development Research Center Cheng Guoqiang [microblogging] believes that at this stage, not all agricultural products are suitable for target price subsidies, pilots should be carried out on varieties that are suitable for adopting price subsidies, and pilots should be expanded first. If the trials on soybeans and cotton are successful, they will naturally be promoted to other agricultural products.

The subsidy was sent directly to the cotton farmers. According to the reporter's understanding, the direct subsidy method or the combination of area and output is consistent with the subsidy prices and forms of the local, southern and northern Xinjiang. At the same time, taking into account the possibility that the target price subsidy will be issued in the next year, the cotton farmers may be given a portion of agricultural subsidies first, and weekly price monitoring will be adopted to formulate the basic subsidy price. Similar to the grain subsidy, the cotton farmers will be issued a card. The subsidies were sent directly to the farmers.

Liu Tengpu, a cotton analyst at China Cotton, believes that the cotton planting stage will begin in April. In order to stabilize the planting area, the state announced the target price during the Ching Ming Festival. The target price of 19,800 yuan/ton is determined according to the cotton production cost plus the basic income of cotton farmers. At present, the average planting cost per acre in Xinjiang is about 2,200 yuan. From 2008 to 2013, the Xinjiang yield remained relatively stable.

"This is finally assured that it has been entangled whether or not to plant something else. Now that the direct subsidies policy has been set, we will continue to grow cotton." Zhou Xiong, a large cotton producer in Altay, Xinjiang, said in an interview with the China Times reporter that this year At the beginning of the year, I heard that Xinjiang wanted to pilot a direct cotton subsidy policy. However, it has been unclear how Direct Subsidy will be implemented. Now that the news is confirmed, we can start planting seeds.

Prior to this, Cheng Guoqiang once stated that not all agricultural products are suitable for target price subsidies at this stage, and pilots should be carried out on varieties that are suitable for adopting price subsidies. Meikei analyst Liu Yi also believes that China's direct subsidies for agricultural products are newborns, and the overall operating mechanism is still not perfect, and it belongs to the stage of crossing the river. Therefore, from the pilot point, gradually expand.

At present, the state only subsidizes the Xinjiang cotton area, and the mainland provinces are not yet subsidized. Therefore, the problem arises. The income of cotton farmers in the inland provinces will decline, which will directly result in a decrease in cotton planting area. It is recommended that other key cotton areas be included in the subsidy category. We can see from China Cotton Information Network's February cotton planting intention data that the area was reduced by 370,000 mu compared to the online survey base for this month, and Xinjiang is still 32.3 million mu, which has remained unchanged from the previous month.

From the data point of view, the intention to plant cotton in the Yangtze River valley continues to decrease, Xinjiang is still relatively stable, and cotton farmers mainly wait for the introduction of the target price subsidy policy. Therefore, in the face of the new government of the country, there will be two different states: In Xinjiang, the cotton planting area will remain stable. In the cotton regions of the Mainland, due to fears of no subsidy from farmers in the Mainland, the planting area will fall sharply.

Since the planting cost of an acre of cotton in Xinjiang last year was approximately 2100 yuan to 2200 yuan, the net income per acre of land was 950 yuan, which was able to boost the cultivation enthusiasm of cotton farmers. Last year, the purchase price of seed cotton in Xinjiang basically kept around 9 yuan/kg; this year's target price of 19,800 yuan/ton, the average price of seed cotton was between 8.8 and 8.85 yuan/kg (accounting for 2.0-2.2 yuan/kg for cottonseed). By comparison, it is not difficult to find that the price center of gravity basically extends the pricing interval during the period of storage and storage.

“Although this year's cotton can be sold for nine bucks and one kilogram, the proceeds from planting cotton can basically be guaranteed. However, due to delays in Shandong's direct subsidy policy, we may have to reduce the planting area.” Wang Delu, a major cotton producer in Dezhou City, Shandong Province, received the report. During the interview, he said that the country does not purchase stockpiles and hopes that the country can quickly publish detailed subsidies for farmers in the Mainland, otherwise we may have to switch to corn or wheat. Temporary purchase and storage of distorted prices Since domestic cotton prices experienced a “roller coaster” market in 2011, the country has established open storage prices of 19,800 yuan/ton and 20,400 yuan/ton, which have basically become the world’s highest cotton prices in the year. Domestic cotton prices have remained high. However, as the price in the international market continues to fall, the contradiction in the cost of cotton imports that is significantly lower than the temporary purchase and storage price is also increasingly prominent.

The state initiated the policy of temporary cotton purchase and storage. At that time, although the temporary purchase and storage had eased the impact of the huge cotton price fluctuation on the industry, Liu Yi believed that excessively binding the cotton price violated the laws of the market economy. It also brought a series of problems. Such as imported cotton, cotton yarn impact on the domestic market, terminal clothing products export resistance, lower than the storage and storage price throwing storage cotton enterprises do not buy and other issues.

“The current days of cotton enterprises are not easy, especially cotton textile companies that do not have import quotas or small quotas are even more pressureful.” A manager of a cotton company in Shandong, Guo, said in an interview with the China Times reporters. “Because of the high domestic cotton price, the product price of the enterprise is higher than the price of the products in Southeast Asia and other regions, the finished product has no competitive advantage at all, and the company is faced with a difficult situation.”

Due to the high price difference between cotton at home and abroad, nowadays, smaller cotton enterprises have to choose to close their doors, or choose to transform their products into chemical fiber products. As Gao Yong, vice chairman and secretary-general of the China National Textile and Apparel Council, said, although the data textile industry is still in a good position, according to the estimates of the Cotton Spinning Association and Garment Association, the yarn production in 2013 only increased by more than 1% year-on-year. With only 1.25% growth in apparel, it is close to zero growth, which is the lowest growth rate over the years.

According to Dong Shuangwei, general manager of Beijing Diyisi Investment Consulting Co., Ltd., due to the relative ease of global cotton except for China, the difference between cotton prices at home and abroad has continued to maintain a high level, the highest ever reached the range of 5000-6000 yuan / ton spread, low also In the 2000-3000 yuan range, this has a very negative impact on the domestic industry chain, which also means that the impact of raw materials on the textile industry is increasingly evident.

Although the country launched a trial of cotton target price reform and explored reforms that promote the decoupling of agricultural product price formation mechanisms from government subsidies, the market will play a decisive role in resource allocation under the precondition of ensuring the interests of farmers, and promote coordinated development of the cotton industry upstream and downstream. At the same time, the formulation of this policy also marks the start of the pilot reform of cotton target prices in Xinjiang.

"As affected by the adjustment of national policies, cotton prices will go into the market, and there are still many uncertainties in the survival of cotton enterprises, but there are also many active optimists." As Wang Yichen, sales manager of a cotton enterprise in Wuhan, said in an interview with reporters, last year We pay more than 5,000 tons of storage, and the basic income of enterprises is still good. Although the country no longer collects and stores this year, it is not necessarily a bad thing. We can hedge the risk of price fluctuations by involving the market in hedging.

“Actually, the system of purchasing and storing for many years also led the country to become the largest buyer during the period of storage and storage. During the period of deposit and storage, it became the largest seller. The role of the market was greatly weakened, and a lot of power rent-seeking behavior was created.” Dong Shuangwei interviewed by reporters Said that the downstream textile industry was deeply affected by it. The high spreads caused by domestic and foreign cotton people and the matching quota rent-seeking behavior caused a large number of downstream industry enterprises to shut down, and the industry was forced to transfer to Southeast Asia. The production structure of enterprises was shifted to cotton substitutes. Production.